Housing Numbers
At the heart of everything we see, whether it’s the mass of Green Belt planning applications, or a Local Plan proposing mass house building, is the Government set housing needs target.
Such targets were once advisory but since the end of 2024 they have become mandatory. They are so high that almost everywhere in the country it’s necessary to allow development on green spaces to meet the number.
The target empowers landowners and developers to put in planning applications as they know Basildon council has to meet their target. Basildon council has to set out a Local Plan to the same aim. Failure to do so will lead to Government intervention and planning decisions being made by the Planning Inspectorate, or even the Secretary of State.
The target is set using something called the Standard Method. It applies to every council and is an algorithm based on two variables (1) the number of dwellings (housing stock) in the area today (2) an affordability ratio based on local average house prices and local average wage. Both of these are published figures. The Government applies some somewhat arbitrary factors and uplifts to these to determine the target.
What this results in is a figure far more than the true local need based on good data from sources like the ONS. There is no clear justification for the excessive figure. It could be considered a political aspiration that has existed across the last two Governments.
From a Basildon borough perspective it results in a target of just under 27,000 houses over a 20 year period. A figure closer to 6,000 (Essex Planning Officers Association) would meet the true local need and around 8,600 (ONS household projections) would allow for a degree of in-migration too, of people wishing to move here to live and work.
In effect Basildon council is expected to make provisions in a Local Plan, and by approving planning applications, for more than four times the number of houses that are actually needed at a local level. It makes no good sense and is unsustainable. It leads directly to Green Belt loss and puts huge pressure on schools, health facilities and our roads.
A figure closer to 8,600 could largely be delivered by brownfield developments alone and would put new housing in better locations closer to the centre of towns, minimising the pressure on transport and nearer to existing services. It would be more sustainable.
The Government enforced housing target is as naïve as it is reckless. But there appears to be no signs of them rowing back on the numbers. If anything, they are doing everything they can to ensure the target (over 1.5m homes across the country in 5 years) gets delivered through changes to national planning policy making it easier to build almost anywhere, especially on the Green Belt.
This problem existed back in 2014 when Basildon council first started work on a new Local Plan and it exists today in 2026. The numbers are now even higher (by around 6,000) and will no doubt continue to go up. Councils have to meet the ever increasing number by revising the Local Plan (and therefore allocating even more land for building) and approving yet more planning applications.
The target has created a developers charter, but ultimately it’s those private developers that will determine if the targets are met as they will only build to demand (customers). And demand for the Government’s number of houses doesn’t exist today, and probably never will.
Such targets were once advisory but since the end of 2024 they have become mandatory. They are so high that almost everywhere in the country it’s necessary to allow development on green spaces to meet the number.
The target empowers landowners and developers to put in planning applications as they know Basildon council has to meet their target. Basildon council has to set out a Local Plan to the same aim. Failure to do so will lead to Government intervention and planning decisions being made by the Planning Inspectorate, or even the Secretary of State.
The target is set using something called the Standard Method. It applies to every council and is an algorithm based on two variables (1) the number of dwellings (housing stock) in the area today (2) an affordability ratio based on local average house prices and local average wage. Both of these are published figures. The Government applies some somewhat arbitrary factors and uplifts to these to determine the target.
What this results in is a figure far more than the true local need based on good data from sources like the ONS. There is no clear justification for the excessive figure. It could be considered a political aspiration that has existed across the last two Governments.
From a Basildon borough perspective it results in a target of just under 27,000 houses over a 20 year period. A figure closer to 6,000 (Essex Planning Officers Association) would meet the true local need and around 8,600 (ONS household projections) would allow for a degree of in-migration too, of people wishing to move here to live and work.
In effect Basildon council is expected to make provisions in a Local Plan, and by approving planning applications, for more than four times the number of houses that are actually needed at a local level. It makes no good sense and is unsustainable. It leads directly to Green Belt loss and puts huge pressure on schools, health facilities and our roads.
A figure closer to 8,600 could largely be delivered by brownfield developments alone and would put new housing in better locations closer to the centre of towns, minimising the pressure on transport and nearer to existing services. It would be more sustainable.
The Government enforced housing target is as naïve as it is reckless. But there appears to be no signs of them rowing back on the numbers. If anything, they are doing everything they can to ensure the target (over 1.5m homes across the country in 5 years) gets delivered through changes to national planning policy making it easier to build almost anywhere, especially on the Green Belt.
This problem existed back in 2014 when Basildon council first started work on a new Local Plan and it exists today in 2026. The numbers are now even higher (by around 6,000) and will no doubt continue to go up. Councils have to meet the ever increasing number by revising the Local Plan (and therefore allocating even more land for building) and approving yet more planning applications.
The target has created a developers charter, but ultimately it’s those private developers that will determine if the targets are met as they will only build to demand (customers). And demand for the Government’s number of houses doesn’t exist today, and probably never will.
The Basildon Borough Position
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The image to the right is of a page taken from the draft Basildon Local Plan in January 2026.
It provides some background to the almost 27,000 houses that the Government expects. It’s around 1,350 houses per year on average. What is interesting to note is that a 20% buffer is added because Basildon council has failed to deliver 85% of the housing target in the past. It is also important to note that ‘success’ is measured in terms of the numbers of houses actually built, not the number that have been given planning consent. If the council is not delivering completed houses to the stated target, when measured over a 5 year period, it is very likely that planning applications will be approved on Green Belt land under ‘very special circumstances’, in an attempt to get more built. The lack of a 5-Year Housing Land Supply, as it’s known, is a major issue. Basildon council can currently only show a 1.88 year supply based on current targets. That is, rather than predicting that about 6,700 houses will be built over the next 5 years, they can only identify around 2,500 despite over 9,000 being approved. (figure as at January 2026). Basildon council is totally dependent on the builders actually building! They have little control over this. |
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The Withdrawn Local Plan
The version of the Local Plan that was withdrawn in March 2022 was based on a housing target going back to at least 2016. 10 years ago! We will never know the outcome of that plan but at the time it was withdrawn all the signs were that it was going to cater for around 21,000 houses.
If that plan had been adopted, it would inevitably be in the 5 year review cycle by now (a statutory requirement) and Basildon council would be expected to make new allowances for the current housing target of about 27,000. They would need to find somewhere to build the extra 6,000 houses. That is in effect what we are seeing with the currently emerging version of the Local Plan.
In the main, all of the proposed sites from the 2022 plan have been carried forward, some of which are already subject to planning applications, plus a number of new sites have been identified, very noticeably to the south of Billericay.
If that plan had been adopted, it would inevitably be in the 5 year review cycle by now (a statutory requirement) and Basildon council would be expected to make new allowances for the current housing target of about 27,000. They would need to find somewhere to build the extra 6,000 houses. That is in effect what we are seeing with the currently emerging version of the Local Plan.
In the main, all of the proposed sites from the 2022 plan have been carried forward, some of which are already subject to planning applications, plus a number of new sites have been identified, very noticeably to the south of Billericay.
