South Essex Rail Topic Paper - Summary
One of the original reasons for establishing the Green Belt around London was to prevent the capital’s commuter infrastructure from being overwhelmed by population growth at and around the city’s periphery.
SE Essex is a commuter economy within London’s Green Belt, 12% of workers commute by train to London (23% in Billericay) with a further 10% travelling by road. These London jobs are of disproportionate economic importance, being more highly paid than those held by counterparts working locally.
However, the area’s large Objectively Assessed Needs (OAN) of 89,000 houses over 20 years, would, if met, see a sharp rise in both population and the number of people commuting to London.
This begs the question about whether meeting OAN is economically sustainable. Will the commuter infrastructure - already at capacity, on which the area’s economy depends - be able to respond to the increase in demand?
Billericay Action Group (BAG) made the decision to produce this study to examine that question and we are indebted to the local rail franchises for their assistance in producing it.
SE Essex is a commuter economy within London’s Green Belt, 12% of workers commute by train to London (23% in Billericay) with a further 10% travelling by road. These London jobs are of disproportionate economic importance, being more highly paid than those held by counterparts working locally.
However, the area’s large Objectively Assessed Needs (OAN) of 89,000 houses over 20 years, would, if met, see a sharp rise in both population and the number of people commuting to London.
This begs the question about whether meeting OAN is economically sustainable. Will the commuter infrastructure - already at capacity, on which the area’s economy depends - be able to respond to the increase in demand?
Billericay Action Group (BAG) made the decision to produce this study to examine that question and we are indebted to the local rail franchises for their assistance in producing it.
OAN accelerates growth and in-migration and London commuting rates
The Standard Method for calculating OAN doesn’t just deliver many more houses than local people need, in most parts of south Essex it would also accelerate in-migration.
Furthermore, the proportion of incomers who commute is likely to actually be greater than the current local proportions as the large majority of new homes will be at market prices, the price of which is determined by what the out-migrating Londoners, who still intend to work in London, can afford.
Furthermore, the proportion of incomers who commute is likely to actually be greater than the current local proportions as the large majority of new homes will be at market prices, the price of which is determined by what the out-migrating Londoners, who still intend to work in London, can afford.
C2C
Demand on the line grew 45% in 2006-16, and Peak Demand can be expected to grow 36% in 2013-23 and 76% in 2013-43. The operators cannot run more frequent services but can make some improvements to capacity through lengthening services and have begun to do so.
• The busiest section of the railway is the direct section via Basildon and High Peak capacity on that section could grow up to 18% from the baseline, and much of this improvement has been delivered already.
• The limited, slow service via the Tilbury loop could see a 71% increase in High Peak capacity if issues around Level crossings are resolved.
• The capacity of the Grays to Fenchurch Street route, via Chafford Hundred, cannot be improved.
Most of these improvements will be delivered by 2025 and after that there is nothing meaningful that can be done to improve capacity.
• The busiest section of the railway is the direct section via Basildon and High Peak capacity on that section could grow up to 18% from the baseline, and much of this improvement has been delivered already.
• The limited, slow service via the Tilbury loop could see a 71% increase in High Peak capacity if issues around Level crossings are resolved.
• The capacity of the Grays to Fenchurch Street route, via Chafford Hundred, cannot be improved.
Most of these improvements will be delivered by 2025 and after that there is nothing meaningful that can be done to improve capacity.
Southend Victoria Branch
Peak Demand is projected to grow 32% in 2013-23 and 75% in 2013-43. Crossrail makes no difference to rail capacity in South Essex, and it is not practical to extend the line as sometimes suggested.
Capacity Improvements in the current franchise – to 2025
There are grounds for guarded optimism that High Peak capacity could increase by up to 20% during the current franchise.
• It is possible that High Peak capacity in part of the branch could see a 4% increase from lengthening the last High Peak service that is not at full 12-car length. It is also possible that there could be a small reduction.
• The train fleet replacement will mean more seats fitted into trains of the same length. Approximately 5% will be standard seats, and another 15% will be tip-up seats in standing areas. These won’t be usable at the busiest times.
• It is possible that High Peak capacity in part of the branch could see a 4% increase from lengthening the last High Peak service that is not at full 12-car length. It is also possible that there could be a small reduction.
• The train fleet replacement will mean more seats fitted into trains of the same length. Approximately 5% will be standard seats, and another 15% will be tip-up seats in standing areas. These won’t be usable at the busiest times.
Potential improvements in the next franchise – 2025 to 2035
There is also a chance that two additional services per hour may be available in the High Peak. If these services do not become available in 2025-35 they are still likely to do so in the long run, however when they do it is doubtful that the Southend branch will be the beneficiary.
There are no other meaningful improvements to High Peak capacity that could be applied in this period.
There are no other meaningful improvements to High Peak capacity that could be applied in this period.
Impact of Covid
At the current time (Jan 2022) it is still too early to assess the net impact of the Covid Pandemic, but its clear that it cuts both ways. On the one hand the reduction in demand is likely to buy time for the railways by accelerating existing trends to home-working.
However, a further effect has been to seriously damage government and railway industry finances, threatening the delivery of improvements. A major concern for both corridors is that the operators will address their financial deficits by prioritising London stations, and in the case of the Anglia line by prioritising services on the main branch to Norwich.
However, a further effect has been to seriously damage government and railway industry finances, threatening the delivery of improvements. A major concern for both corridors is that the operators will address their financial deficits by prioritising London stations, and in the case of the Anglia line by prioritising services on the main branch to Norwich.
Railway Tipping Point
Both railways face enormous challenges, even if OAN is not met. The greatest threat to each railway is the problems of the other. When one line becomes intolerable, passengers will increasingly transfer to the other line threatening to overwhelm that in turn.
Recommendation
Meeting OAN is often presented as a way of boosting local industries by providing a large pool of labour. However, doing so would hazard the much more valuable existing London employment we already depend on by overloading the railways.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush but meeting OAN would be akin to risking two birds in the hand to chase one in the bush.
Most Local Authorities are expected to meet OAN, however there are exceptions:
“The Framework is clear local planning authorities should, through their Local Plans, meet objectively assessed needs unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits...or specific policies in the Framework indicate development should be restricted. Such policies include… Green Belt.” (Para 044 National Planning Policy Framework)
All the South Essex Local Authorities (LAs) are fortunate to be surrounded by countryside which is designated as Green Belt, and which can therefore be cited as a reason to not meet OAN. LAs should produce Local Plans which include lower-than-OAN Housing Targets, citing constraints such as Green Belt designation and stating the economic harm that would arise as a result of the limitations to commuter rail links. Other issues infrastructure limitations might also be provide a legitimate restraint.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush but meeting OAN would be akin to risking two birds in the hand to chase one in the bush.
Most Local Authorities are expected to meet OAN, however there are exceptions:
“The Framework is clear local planning authorities should, through their Local Plans, meet objectively assessed needs unless any adverse impacts of doing so would significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits...or specific policies in the Framework indicate development should be restricted. Such policies include… Green Belt.” (Para 044 National Planning Policy Framework)
All the South Essex Local Authorities (LAs) are fortunate to be surrounded by countryside which is designated as Green Belt, and which can therefore be cited as a reason to not meet OAN. LAs should produce Local Plans which include lower-than-OAN Housing Targets, citing constraints such as Green Belt designation and stating the economic harm that would arise as a result of the limitations to commuter rail links. Other issues infrastructure limitations might also be provide a legitimate restraint.
You can read and download our full Rail Topic Paper here
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